My Picks for 2012 Season!

Let’s see what has transpired since that unbelievable World Series between Cards and Rangers last year: Giants won the Super Bowl (yay!), Peyton is no longer a Colt (sad), Tebow is where he belongs – united with Rex Ryan (OMG!); Red Sox lost both Theo and Francona (wow!); and then again some things haven’t changed at all – economy is still wobbly; Republicans candidates are still trashing each other more than MSNBC; and amidst all the chaos in the World, Baseball has returned, like it does every Spring, bringing much needed respite to all!

Best way to start the second week of the season – as has been my tradition – is by making my picks for 2012. Before I go there, one interesting twist for this season is the extra wild card in each league. Interesting because the two wild card teams in each league will play a one-game playoff. At first glance you might dismiss the idea as ho-hum, but I love it- primarily because it makes the division races a lot more meaningful. Remember the years where Yankees and Red Sox coasted in September knowing that one will win the division and other the wild card? Well, rest assured, this year they will be battling to win the division so as to avoid that one game playoff against the other wild card team.

Alright – time to get started with the picks.  Let’s go with the easy ones first. Detroit & Texas are my locks to make playoffs from AL Central and West, respectively. Tigers come loaded like few other teams I can recall in recent history. Pitching still has some holes after Mr MVP Verlander himself – especially with Fister on DL early in the season – but that line-up they have should score enough runs to overcome pitching concerns. Texas Rangers are remarkably well managed since combination of Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels came together at the helm. They have always been a good hitting team, but now pitching is as solid as it can be – including a strong bullpen.

Now comes the tough part – who will be the other three playoff teams from AL? Well, Angels seem too strong not to take one of those Wild Card spots. Great starting rotation for sure – better than even Rangers – but their bullpen leaks like a sieve until you get to closer Walden. Hitting is solid – Trumbo could have a monster year, and of course there is Pujols.

Finally, there is the age old question of who will win the AL East  — historically the toughest division and no different this year. You could make a case for Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, and I would say perhaps even Blue Jays. Reality, however, is that all four are likely to beat up on each other. Of the four, Red Sox have the most holes to fill, especially in pitching. Blue Jays would be a bold pick…and I am not there yet. So, it comes down to Rays or Yankees. Yankees have an amazingly solid pen – matched only by Rangers in my opinion – the real question is whether Michael Pineda will make a difference in his first year? Will he even pitch? Rays have the strongest starting rotation in AL East but not much of a bullpen, and I am not sure about that lineup either. So, by default, I will take Yankees to win the East. As to the final wild card, Rays should take it but I am going to go with Blue Jays to squeeze themselves in instead.

On to National League. Let me admit upfront – I usually don’t follow the senior circuit closely. But this year is likely to be different for two reasons: my Fantasy roster is loaded with NL players this year, and I am really excited about the local team – Washington Nationals. Talking of Nats, NL East could be a lot of fun this year – very competitive especially because of vastly mproved Nats and Marlins teams, and Phillies struggling offensively, with Utley and Howard out at the beginning of the season.  But I am not going to bet against Messrs Halladay, Lee and Hamels – so, Phillies it is to take NL East, with my favorite Nats sliding into one of the wild card spots.

NL Central is a total mess. With Fielder and Pujols departing, suddenly, there is an offensive vacuum in the league. But let’s not forget that this is the division that produced WS winner last year. I think the division will come down to Cardinals vs Brewers, although at one point I thought Pirates could finally rise up. I am going to go with Cards.

Then comes the other exciting division, and often ignored by us East Coast-ers – NL West. Just like AL East, I can argue for three teams to win this division – Arizona, who happen to be well coached, have a good rotation, and some exciting young hitters; Giants, just a couple of years removed from a championship and with the best rotation in the west – arguably as good as Phillies’ rotation; and Dodgers who have one of the Cy Young favorites in Kershaw as their ace and MVP candidate Matt Kemp setting the offense, both surrounded by a solid supporting cast. I will take Arizona to win it in the end, with Dodgers squeaking by Giants for the final wild card spot.

So to summarize, I have the following teams.

• AL: Yankees (East), Tigers (Central), Rangers (West), Angels & Blue Jays as WIld Card teams.
• NL: Phillies (East), Cardinals (Central), Diamondbacks (West), Nationals and Dodgers as Wild Card teams.

In ALCS, I will take the Tigers to upstage the Rangers, although Yankees could be in the running if the starting rotation comes together. NL playoffs could be a wild ride. Watch out for Nationals to make some noise and surprise a few people. In the end it will be Phillies vs Tigers in the World Series with Tigers finally bringing home the crown, followed almost surely by some top-notch rioting only the city of Detroit can produce.

Enjoy the season!

 

Moneyball – 10 Years Later

It is interesting that Hollywood chose to make a movie based on Moneyball seven years after the book came out but 10 years after the so-called Moneyball theory went into effect. Interesting because it is really hard to say if the theory ever truly worked, and no one can argue that 10 years is a long enough time to test it.

Before we go any further, it is important to decipher what “it” is. And I dare you to find two baseball fans who have read the book to actually align on what the Moneyball theory was or still is. At a basic level, the Moneyball concept is about finding value-players. It is no different than finding value wines but a lot more complex. Finding talented high quality players at low salary levels means you know what to look for, and herein comes the most controversial part of Moneyball — indeed, what should you look for? Billy Beane and his Ivy League economics major went about looking for players with the best “on-base-percentage”. Theory is straight-forward–if you get on base more often, and you have many players who do the same, more of them are likely to score runs. The more runs you score, the more games you are likely to win.

Moneyball explains the math behind it, building on Bill James’ ground-breaking work on Sabermetrics. It is fascinating. But the real issue is – how do you define success? If success is defined as “dollars spent per win”, yes, Oakland A’s of 1999 to 2006 proved that Moneyball was a huge success. No team can match their stats. Yankees may have won more games over that period, but at an average payroll 4 to 5 times Oakland A’s, I don’t need a calculator to say the A’s spent a lot less per win. But, here is the pinch – is success in baseball just winning enough regular season games? I don’t think so. Most fans wouldn’t think so. It is about winning the title. Oakland hasn’t won any in those 10 years.

Actually, the Oakland A’s lost four straight division series from 1999 to 2003 – all of them in game 5 of the division series. Short of the Buffalo Bills of the early 90’s, show me one more professional team in American sports that had such a heart-breaking run. In 2006, the A’s finally made it to the ALCS, only to be swept away by the Detroit Tigers.  A’s haven’t made it back to the playoffs since. There is no doubt that other teams adopted the Moneyball concept – Red Sox are the most famous example. They brought a young Ivy Leaguer – Theo Epstein in 2002, and they hired Bill James as a consultant. Many people credit the 2004 Red Sox championship to Moneyball but I think that is a stretch. Yes, Red Sox adopted the theory of Sabermetrics in terms of constructing their team, but they never followed the most fundamental premise of Moneyball – “finding value players”. They spent $135M on payroll – that is about $1.37M per regular season win; compare that to $0.5M per win for 2003 A’s.

In my personal opinion, Moneyball remains a very interesting piece of work in Baseball history, and nobody would be more happy than I to see it pay off for the A’s. But to call it a “successful” formula is stretching the truth.

A final word on the movie itself. The movie ignores several aspects of the book and focuses more on Billy Beane himself. And that makes sense – hard to make a movie for the masses about “stats”. I loved it, and whether you are an A’s fan or not, you would have to be heartless to not have part of you rooting for Beane and A’s by the end of the movie. To think that joke of a GM across the Bay – Brian Sabean has won a World Series and Billy Beane has not is definitely hard to swallow. Go Oakland — now that movie is made, may 2012 be your year!

New Rule: Mandatory Steroid Program!

Here is a new rule MLB should implement right away: if you are a player making more than $5 million a year and as a hitter you are batting less than .250, or as a pitcher you cannot top 85 mph for your fast balls on a regular basis, you should be allowed to inject yourself with steroids or human growth hormones (HGH). Check that – you should be required to do so. Yes, I am proposing mandatory injections in the buttocks until performance improves enough to match what you make.

You are wondering if I have lost my mind. Well, work with me here… If you follow Yankees like I do, and watch Freddy Garcia toss up 85 mph fast balls for batting practice to rival Red Sox, and then you see old man Bartolo Colon throw 95 mph fast balls in the 8th inning, let me ask you – what do you prefer to see? If you didn’t know, Colon had stem cell based surgery in the off-season on his shoulder, conveniently performed by a doctor in Dominican Republic, where HGH are not illegal. Hmm…. He is pitching like he was a 24 year old rookie. As a fan, do I really care what Colon is injecting into himself (by the way, MLB cares and are allegedly investigating)? David Ortiz is having a renaissance in his late thirties, hitting well over .300 and his power numbers are up as well. Ortiz was allegedly named in the Mitchell Report as one of the players who tested positive back in 2003 (prior to MLB putting steroid testing in place), although he has denied it. Even the most diehard red sox fans don’t believe Ortiz and are conveniently enjoying his great year. Is he back on something? Who knows…and once again, as a fan, do I care?

Some purist fans do care – when a player is tested positive, it still makes news. People talk about it for a few days, and then go about their business and cheer the same player when he hits a clutch home run in a game. In other words, fans are more or less happy with what I call – “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy when it comes to steroids or HGH use. As long as we are blissfully ignorant, we celebrate players’ performances and revel in our favorite teams’ success.

Lest I forget, there are couple of other benefits of my new rule. First, it is the nearest substitute for a salary cap. Let’s say you are an aging player, but based on your past performance, you are able to command a nice fat salary and longer-than-necessary contract, even though most people predict that you are not likely to maintain that performance over the full length of your new contract. Under MLB’s guaranteed contracts, this means the club never really gets full value for what they are paying you. The best recent example is Jorge Posada of Yankees. In his fourth year of a $52M contract, his performance has declined dramatically but he is still making $13M in the final year. Now, under my new rule, players like Jorge would have to either inject harmful substances into their body, retire, or negotiate a salary below $5M. The team can then take that extra money and spend on other players. Not quite a salary cap, but same effect. Also gives an opportunity for newcomers to come up faster in the system.

Second, in a similarly convoluted way, my new rule can also pass for consumer protection. Every time a team pays more than necessary for players, it leads to inflated payroll and expectations, which then turn into higher ticket prices, and in some cases, higher taxes when the city funds a new stadium for the team to accommodate for inflated expectations. Well, with the new rule in place, no more inflated contracts – and voila – no more higher ticket prices.

So, to sum it up, mandatory steroid policy is the best self-regulating solution available for MLB to finally find the right salary-to-performance balance. You want to make money, then perform – if not, get ready for a real sore tush and other side effects like erectile dysfunction and swollen heads. Very straightforward, don’t you think?

Lightning in a Bottle

About a month ago, Buck Showalter, manager of Orioles, took some flak for calling out Red Sox’s Theo Epstein, arguably one of the best GMs in baseball today. His comment was, and I paraphrase here, how smart do you have to be when you are willing to pay a player (Carl Crawford) money nobody else can or will. Okay, fair point. But, as Giants proved last year, it is not all about money. Giants’ Brian Sabean, arguably one of the worst GMs  in baseball over the last 15 years, somehow assembled a team consisting of has-beens and beat out Phillies and Rangers, both with much higher payroll than the Giants. We know why Giants won – lights-out pitching – all built from the farm system over several years. Does that make Sabean a genius?

Over the years, it has been proven that good pitching wins you playoff series. Marlins in 2003 and Giants in 2010 may be recent examples where the under-dog, low payroll team won. Marlins used a young Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, and dare I mention, Carl Pavano to shut down Yankees, who were still celebrating the ALCS come-from-behind win over Red Sox. Honestly, I can’t recall a single player in the Florida batting line-up – and I am an avid baseball fan. Giants have had  Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain grooming for a while, but did most people outside of the Bay area know that they had a kid named Madison Bumgarner to boot? Will he have a great year in 2011, or will that one game in WS be his only claim to fame? Who knows… and that brings us to the key point – how do you go about developing a pitching rotation like the 2003 Marlins or 2010 Giants?

Well, broadly speaking, there are three ways any GM would approach that question:

1. Spend years finding young talent – via draft, via trades, put them in the farm system, and wait, wait, wait…..and pray that they live up to their potential. They don’t cost you much. This has been perfected by “Moneyball” Oakland A’s.
2. Use other major league teams as your farm system; wait and see which pitchers turn out well, and sign them as free agents. The classic way Yankees and to some extent Red Sox did it much of the last decade.
3. The “Inverse-Moneyball” (my code-term): A unique combination of above two – draft pitchers, groom them to be major league level, and then trade them for proven pitchers to teams who can no longer afford them but are willing to take a chance with young “maybe-ready” pitchers.

For those of you who didn’t follow the Moneyball reference, you are missing a great book by Michael Lewis of “Liar’s Poker” fame called Moneyball. Check it out.

As you would suspect, most good GMs try to find a balance of all of the above. But it ain’t easy. I am an unabashed Yankee fan, and I was very happy when a few years ago, Yankees didn’t give up Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy – at that time, their prized young pitching prospects to get Johan Santana from Twins. Well, how did that turn out? Ian Kennedy, touted to be the next Mike Mussina, struggled mightily at major league level, finally got traded to Arizona, where he had a decent year but he is no Mike Mussina (yet). Phil Hughes…well, he struggled his first full year, had an outstanding year in bullpen in 2009, great first half in 2010 as a starter, and this year, a complete disaster so far.

Phillies have adopted more of approach #3 – they have traded great pitching prospects, not once but twice – once to get Cliff Lee for half a season, and then to get Roy Halladay. One of the pitchers they gave up is Kyle Drabek – now in his full year as a starter with Blue Jays. Only time will tell how good he turns out, but let’s face it – nobody is shedding any tears in Philadelphia, given how well Roy Halladay has performed.

Red Sox also have shown a tendency to stick with their young pitchers – like Yankees. Theo turned down many offers for Clay Buchholz last two years. Clay had an outstanding 2010 as a full-time starter; but 2011 hasn’t gone so well thus far.

More and more GMs are opting for Option 1 above – for one, because not many teams can afford option 2 or 3 but they are also perhaps inspired by Marlins, Giants, Oakland A’s. Is this intelligence? Good scouting of young talent? Not really. Finding good pitching is like catching lightning in a bottle…and when you get it right, even Brian Sabean can look like a genius.

Predictions Sure to Come Right!

I like to wait a week after the start of the season to make my picks of the year – primarily to see how rosters shake out after Spring Training, and it doesn’t hurt to see a couple of series to see how teams are doing. Rarely would those two series make an impact on the picks for a season that is 162 games long but when one of the favorites to win the World Series starts 0-6, you have to start wondering…. Well, here goes.

National League:

Of the three divisions, NL East is easiest to pick this year. When you have a starting rotation that sends an ace to the mound four days out of five, you really don’t have to worry about much else. Phillies could run away with East this year. It also doesn’t hurt that you are playing Mets, Nationals for 18 times each. Braves and Marlins can be really good, and there are challenges – Chase Utley could be out for a while, and the bullpen is suspect, but who needs them when you have Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels?

NL Central is always a hard division for me to pick. I thought Cards had their best chance last year, but this year, they are without their ace Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday is injured to start the season, and Ryan Franklin is blowing saves. Much as I want to believe Cubs can make a run – Garza addition should help, I don’t think they have the depth. Brewers can hit and will score a lot of runs, but not enough to help their pitching. I think Reds will repeat as champs – with arguably the best pitching staff in the division and a balanced line up.

Giants have the second best starting rotation in the league – next to Phillies – and surely, that should be enough to repeat as West Champs? Padres are rebuilding (again), not sure what Diamondbacks are up to; but Rockies and Dodgers will provide strong competition for Giants. Rockies are a sexy pick – good pitching, great batting line-up, and a team that never seems out of it. However, I am sticking with Giants. But, I do think Rockies will take the wild card over Braves.

 

American League:

 

This league just keeps getting better and better. There are so many teams improved from last year – Orioles reformed their line-up, Red Sox added two great hitters and bullpen depth, Angels look like a team again after a year in wilderness, White Sox added sure-fire power with Adam Dunn. This could be one of the most competitive seasons in AL.

For East, we know a few things – Rays might have the best pitching rotation in the division but they can’t hit, Jays can hit but that rotation and bullpen looks weak, Orioles look great but one can’t buy into that rotation lasting a whole season. So, as usual, it comes down to Red Sox and Yankees. It is weird that much of the off-season, the discussion was all about Yankees starting rotation, but frankly, Red Sox aren’t much better. Beckett, Matsuzaka are not consistent, Lackey is realizing that pitching in AL East is no picnic. Yankees, on the other hand, look quietly confident. I don’t know what it is about the look of the team this year, they look relaxed. So, I say Yankees take AL East by a whisker.

I so want to pick Twins to win AL Central. It is hard not to root for a team that is primarily composed of players who came up through the farm system, and they are indeed likable guys. Including their manager. But, one always has to remember that pitching wins divisions, and Twins just don’t have the depth this year – can Pavano have another great year? I doubt it. Cleveland and Royals look really good in the early going but hard to see them holding on. Detroit has the same issue as Twins – just not enough pitching. AL Central will be White Sox’s division for the taking as the season wears on.

There is one story that I will be watching with great interest this year – can the Moneyball theory finally come true for Oakland A’s?  A’s are trying to adopt the cross-bay rival, Giants’ approach this year – let’s assemble the best pitching rotation, fill in the batting holes with have-beens and hope it works out. I loved the book Moneyball, but I am not a believer yet. So, I am going with Rangers to repeat as AL West champs. I do think, however, that both Angels and A’s will give Rangers a run for their money.

Here is another prediction – for once, AL East won’t take the wild card, but AL West will. Why? Because Orioles & Blue Jays will steal wins from other AL East contenders. So, I am going with Angels as wild card winners – but nothing will make me happier to see A’s win the wild card!

Playoffs:

Once Phillies are into playoffs, hard to see them get much resistance until World Series. Giants had an edge over them in pitching last year, but that is evened out if Lee stays fit. AL is not that easy to pick, however. None of the four teams I picked to make playoffs have a strong enough starting rotation to blow everyone away. A’s, if they make it, could make things very interesting. I will go with White Sox to squeeze out the rest to become AL Champs. But, it is Phillies who will take the World Series crown.

Brr…Baseball Season Is Here…Brr….

It might still be snowing outside, but Baseball has returned. Put on some gloves, sweatshirt, thermal underwear when you head out to the game. It makes no sense, I know – maybe they should start the season a week later but with March Madness almost over (for most of us who didn’t pick VCU or Butler in the final four it ended last weekend), let’s be real – we want Baseball back NOW! So, for one, I am happy the season is here. Of course, I will be watching on my TV (or iPad, thank you, MLB.TV) in the comfort of my family room.

Before I make my picks for the year (topic for next blog) – I thought it was interesting to explore a hotly debated topic — “who won the off-season”? First and foremost, isn’t that the most inane question to begin with? Even my six year old will point out – nobody wins in the off-season. But I was surprised to see that even Wall Street Journal (WSJ) fell for this – not just the pundits who get paid to answer the same question over and over again on ESPN, Fox, on-line, etc. The article – pointed to me by a colleague – appeared on February 24, 2011 – you can search for it on-line.

Here is the premise for the article – they took what many sabermetric gurus call “Wins Above Replacement” score assigned to each player who switched teams in the off-season, and then scored each team’s ranking of “most improved team” by adding the scores of players signed, minus the scores of players who left. Are you kidding me, you ask? Well, that was my first reaction. Second reaction: “Wins Above Replacement (WAR)?”  You can look this up, but simply put, WAR is defined as number of wins a player may bring over a replacement-level (minor leaguer, for example) player. For example, Rafael Soriano, who led AL in saves last year, gets a WAR of 1.0 in WSJ article – which means Soriano would add one more win to Yankees this year when compared to someone they might have picked from minor league to replace him. Makes no sense to you? Well, you are probably not alone. Having said that, WAR is a stat that is used by many and whether you believe it or not almost doesn’t matter. But, the fact WSJ picked WAR as the ONLY metric they used to measure “who won the off-season” is bizarre.

Just to give you some other examples, Lance Berkman was 4.3 – yes, so Yankees netted a negative 3.3 when you compare addition of Soriano to loss of Berkman. Insanity. If you know anything about Baseball, you would know that Berkman is well past his prime.  One of the highest WAR ratings for a hitter went to Jayson Werth, now of Nationals. Worth 5 games. I am sure Nats are feeling very good for $120M they spent on him.  WSJ ignored everything else – value of the player to the team that signed them and whether they helped fill a specific need, or teams that may have traded some senior (read: aging) players which allowed them to bring up talent from the minors.  I could keep going.

WSJ’s conclusion – Baltimore Orioles won the off-season. Hands-down. Yep, ask any Orioles fan (they live all around me) – they are quite happy to hear that, since that is closest to winning anything they have come in years. Next time, WSJ, please stick with what you do best – hmm…..let me think about it…. ah..whatever…but please leave Baseball alone.

 

Who should be rooting for Rangers in the World Series?

Answer to that question – Orioles Fans. And, no that is not an oxymoron. I live in Baltimore area, and can vouch for the fact Orioles do actually have fans, although most of them go in hiding by August, especially when Ravens open their pre-season. So, why should Orioles fans root for Rangers? Read on.

Orioles hired Buck Showalter as their manager in August, and they played .600 ball rest of the way – easily the best in AL East over that period. This isn’t the first time Showalter has had that impact on a team. He is known for turning around losing teams. He took over Yankees in 1992. By then, the team had been a consistent loser for several years, finishing at or near the bottom of their division. In 1992, the team improved slightly to 76-86 record, but in 1993, they finished 88-74, and after 1994 strike took away a certain playoff spot from the Yankees (they were on pace to win 100 games rather easily), they continued the winning ways in 1995 to make playoffs for the first time since 1981. Now, here is the rub. George Steinbrenner couldn’t believe that team didn’t make it past the wild card playoff, and fired Showalter. Joe Torre took over the team in 1996, Yankees won the World Series, and rest is history.

Showalter then joined the Diamondbacks organization…and took them to a record 100 wins in 1999, had a slightly down year in 2000 but they were still a winning team. Not good enough, said the Diamonbacks, and fired Buck. They hired Bob Brenly, and went on to beat Yankees in 2001 WS – one of the best World Series ever played. Second consecutive time that a team Buck had left went on to win the World Series the very next year.

Buck re-appeared in 2003, this time as Rangers manager, once again taking over a team that had under-performed consistently since making playoffs in 1999. They had not had a single winning season, finishing third or fourth in AL West. In comes Buck, and leads them to a 89-73 record in 2004. The team remained competitive throughout his tenure in Texas, but he couldn’t get them to playoffs. Angels, having won the WS in 2002, were having some of their best years, and Oakland Athletics were always competitive – making it hard for Rangers to break through. Rangers finished close to .500 every season, but finally, after 2006 season, Rangers asked Buck to take a hike and hired Ron Washington.

Unlike his tenure with Yankees and Diamondbacks, it did take Rangers 4 years to make it to World Series after Buck left, but they are there now. If they win, this would be the third time a team Buck coached and where the manager who took over for him took the team to WS and won. So, Orioles fans, if you want countdown to World Series to begin, here is the formula: root for Rangers, enjoy a couple of good seasons under Buck, hope he gets fired, and the guy after will take you to a World Series win. Better bet, in my opinion, than hoping Peter Angelos actually sells the team to an owner who actually cares about your team, which, really is the only other way you will see your team in the World Series.

The New Dynasty

Move over Yankees, there is a new dynasty taking over. Based just a few miles south and west of New York. Jeter, who? It is Utley time. Phillies roared into playoffs this past week, winning National League East for fourth straight year, and comfortably at that.

Yankees have made playoffs every year since 1995, except in 2008. That is a stunning record in a sport where making playoffs actually means something – unlike NBA and NHL, where it is common to find a .500 team in post-season. But, there is no doubt that the core four who formed this dynasty – Jeter, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte – are nearing the end of their career.  And for much of the last decade, save for 2009 when they won the World Series, the team has been a shadow of that dominant team of 1996 through 2001. Actually, in his book, “The Last Night of The Yankee Dynasty”, Buster Olney fairly accurately described 2001 as end of the Yankee dynasty. But, with no other team to take over the reins and Yankees qualifying for playoffs each year, it was hard to crown anyone else. Well, now, we don’t have to wait.

What is somewhat remarkable are the parallels in emergence of Yankees in 1996 and Phillies in 2007. First, both teams went through some of their worst years leading up to the good years. Yankees compiled a record of 373-435 (winning percentage of 46%) in five years from 1987 to 1992; they got better from 1993 through 1995, before breaking through in 1996. Phillies went 383-426 from 1998 to 2002 (winning percentage of 47%), before they started knocking on the playoff doors, breaking through in 2007.

Second, the emergence of a player who was a catalyst to success for each team – Derek Jeter for Yankees, and Chase Utley for Phillies. Both play critical in-field positions, helping lift defense, but also provided the spark at the top of the order. Both renewed fans’ confidence in the team with the making of a franchise player that every team seeks.

Third, the managerial progression leading to playoff teams for each franchise is curious as well. Yankees can credit Buck Showalter, who came in as a young, no-nonsense, sure-fire-success written all over him, to help them restore respect to the Yankees name. Buck has since proven to be a world class manager that everyone anticipated, but he didn’t last at Yankees and ultimately solidified his reputation at Arizona Diamondbacks. Interestingly, Phillies thought they had their man in Terry Francona, a young, high-energy manager, but they didn’t see the success they anticipated under him. Of course, Francona then became one of the best managers in the game, winning two titles with Red Sox. Another odd coincidence – the managers who presided (and in Phllies case, still presiding) over the dynasty years didn’t really come in with a track-record of success. Joe Torre was an established manager but with mediocre record at his previous stops in Mets, Braves and Cardinals organizations; many doubted the selection of Torre and didn’t expect him to last. Charlie Manuel, similarly, didn’t set Philadelphia on fire although he did have a couple of good years as Indians’ manager.

Finally, and the key ingredient of building a dynasty – money that each team was willing to spend once they found the right core. It is often said that success breeds more success, or at least the desire for the same. Once Yankees won in 1996 but faltered a bit in 1997, owner George Steinbrenner opened up his check-book. He started to bring in established players – Roger Clemens being key (acquired via trade in 1998 from Blue Jays) to surround his core, home-grown players. Phillies have recently applied the same technique. Yes, Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Howard are there but they have brought in players like Roy Halladay (like Clemens, a former Blue Jay, also acquired via trade) and Roy Oswalt, and Cliff Lee last year to ensure a winning combination.

Only time will tell how long this dynasty will last. Like recessions, you find out when dynasty was over only a few years after it was actually over (as Olney documented end of Yankees’ dynasty in his aforementioned book). But, in the mean time, Phillies fans, enjoy what you have. You just never know who else will copy the same formula and create their own dynasty.

Age or just a slump?

Take a look at these stats: .260 average, .329 on base percentage (OBP), 17 stolen bases, 10 home runs, 54 walks and 95 strike outs. Question  - would you take this player for lead off spot in your MLB team? Well, you might if you are Orioles (I kid the Orioles, they are no longer the worst team in baseball). Answer is certainly not easy – you might take him, but probably not in leadoff spot. Now, let me tell you that same player finished last season with .334 average. .406 OBP, 30 stolen bases, 72 walks and 90 strike outs, and oh yes, 18 home runs. You scratch your head – must be sophomore slump, you say. Not quite. These are stats of one Derek Jeter, a sure hall-of-famer, whether you like him or not just because he plays for Yankees.

Is it just a slump? Now that you know who it is, most of you would say it has to be age – another way of saying, “permanent slump”. Much of baseball media agrees with you. “My goodness, look at him, he is 36 years old – that is ancient”, they say. But at 35, he was an MVP candidate. Uh?  No one can dispute that age slows you down. I am no athlete but I turned 40 last year, and yes, I know that a muscle pull takes much longer to recover at 40 than at 30! But, wouldn’t you expect the slow down for a professional MLB player to occur gradually?

Part of the challenge in figuring this out is that we now see everything through steroid-stained lenses. Barry Bonds had some of his best years past age of 35, but  how can we believe any of that? Latest example – Manny Ramirez – he completely dropped off this year in his production. Why? Answer – easy, he is off the juice, and see the impact?

I am sure Baseball GMs, scouts, trainers, are paid a lot of money to look for obvious signs of a player slowing down versus just going through a slump. I haven’t “googled” but in this era of technology and sabermetrics, there must be many tools to help GMs and scouts make their determination. But, if you are Brian Cashman (Yankees GM), do you have guts to rely purely on those metrics to decide on what kind of contract to offer Jeter at the end of the season when he becomes a free agent? Just ask an Angel fan this year how they feel about their team giving up on Vladmir Guerrero. He has 27 HRs and 107 RBIs as member of the rival Texas Rangers, after a sub-par year in 2009 – partly due to injury, although we heard the same talk last year – Vlad is done; he should just retire. Rangers are going to playoffs, Angels are staying home. So, good luck, Brian Cashman, dealing with that Jeter decision in the off season… Oh yeah, did I mention that one Mariano Rivera is also a free agent – at age of almost 41? Hmm… let’s see if any Sabermetricians can predict his permanent slump.

Dog Days of Summer

Per the Farmer’s Almanac, Dog Days of Summer are defined as the period between July 3 and August 11. But, for a sports fan in America, the term is best defined as the period between end of NBA season and the beginning of NFL season. Specifically for a Baseball fan, it is the period between all-star break and early September.  The season drags on during that hot and humid period.  You wait to see which teams will make through the month of August to be in the race for a playoff spot. With each passing day, as a sports fan, you get closer to making up your mind about one thing – are you ready to give up on your baseball team for the year and start following your favorite football team’s pre-season?

In Baltimore, for example, the day Ravens opened camp, Orioles’ season was essentially over. Nevermind that Orioles finally – after years of one bad decision after another -made one right decision – hiring of Buck Showalter as their next manager. Too late for the fans. When your team has as many wins as the number of games they are behind the first place team in the division, can you really blame the fans? It doesn’t hurt that Ravens are a good team and fans have a lot to get excited. In some cities, however, the choice is not as simple. Red Sox fans, until 2003, were used to giving up on their team by August. Not any more. So what if they are 7 games behind Yankees, and plagued with injuries? If not the Yankees, there is always the wild card.

In New York, we have the most interesting fan blend. Many Mets fan happen to be Jets fans; and most Yankees fans happen to be Giants fans. Mets are about done. Jets are considered one of the favorites to make a deep run in the upcoming NFL season. Easy choice there.  Twins are one of the most fun teams to watch – so, Vikings can wait in Minnesota. Oh yeah, that guy Favre may retire. Really? No way. Twins are good. Vikings are good. Fans are happy. So are those Dallas fans. Rangers look poised to make a run at the World Series; Nolan Ryan just bought the team; and Cowboys always look good on paper at the beginning of pre-season.

Then there is Chicago. Cubs are done. Heck, even their manager has already announced he is retiring at the end of the season! Does anyone in the organization care?  White Sox are in first place in Central. But, besides Prez and a few other south-siders, .everyone else has got to be thinking about those bad-news Chicago Bears, and wondering how low will they go this season?

But, Chicago fans, don’t for a minute think that you have it worst. Just look to Motor City. Tigers are dropping in standings faster than BP’s stock; and those Lions…well less said the better. And there is the city of Angels. Dodgers are doing as well as their owner in his divorce proceedings; Angels just got swept by Orioles (ouch); and, let’s not forget, in their infinite wisdom, NFL still hasn’t figured out a way to get LA a football team. But…the city where dog days of summer are expected to last the longest is Cleveland. Indians didn’t have a chance before the baseball season started; Browns are a lock to finish last in their division; and oh yes, then there was that little matter of being dumped by home-town hero, King James, on National TV. Yikes.

So, fans everywhere, enjoy the summer, take pride in your baseball and football teams – and whenever you feel let down by them, just think of those Cleveland-ers. You surely don’t have it as bad.